200 years ago: same Population Questions

Apparently, we are not the only ones asking questions related to the population numbers. Over 200 years ago, we already had individuals trying to address this puzzle. It's hard to blame anyone questioning the narrative on this particular issue, because the official explanation makes very little to no sense.
  • See for yourselves...
world_population_x2.jpg

Consequently, we get the following (made up) stats:

world_population_x1.jpg

As you can see, we have this pseudo-scientific, but 100% official "estimated" data. Yup, the PTB want us to know that (I thought it was a theory) modern human beings, aka Homo Sapiens species, evolved between 130,000 and 200,000 years ago. Please forgive me for taking the liberty of adding 198,196 years to the above table. At the same time, how far from what we are being told is this number?

Please note, that the reasons contributing to such a long time required to get to 1 billion are listed as follows:
  • Many threats, from diseases to climate fluctuations, kept life expectancy short and death rates high.
    • KD: I'm pretty sure wars fall in between diseases and climate fluctuations.
We were brainwashed into believing this made up non-sense. Meanwhile, the PTB appear to be trying real hard to curb the growth of the human population in Africa, where many areas still live in these so-called "pre-industrial" conditions.
I thought Africa was inundated with diseases, food shortages, poor medicine, wars, etc. Yet, these facts do not appear to affect the population growth rate.


27 of the world's poorest countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is blatantly obvious that poor economy, food shortages, diseases, bad medicine, frequent wars, etc., are incapable of slowing down the population growth.

Worlds-most-important-graph-2017.jpg

I do find such narrative related inconsistencies suspicious, and hope you do too. As we know, bullshit comes in many different shapes and forms, and the chart below is just one of them:

wp-g.jpeg


Let's see what those, who came before us, had to say on the population related issues.

pop1.jpg

Here, we have the population table produced by William Whiston (1667-1752). He was an English theologian, historian, and mathematician, a leading figure in the popularization of the ideas of Isaac Newton.
whiston-table.jpg

And the table below was, allegedly, authored by certain Patrick Cockburn (1678-1749).
cockburn-table.jpg

The British Review, and London Critical Journal (1822), has the following to contribute.

pop2.jpg

Additionally, volume 8 of of the Encyclopædia Metropolitana (1849) contains the following information.

population-1.jpg

population-2.jpg

population-3.jpg


KD: Isn't it interesting that 18th/19th centuries scholars were attributing some of the ruins (and cultivated lands) to the times when human civilization was more numerous? If they were right... where did billions of people go?
  • Could it be that the proverbial "Noah's Flood" event happened only a few hundred years ago?
 

Right Arm

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I thought Africa was inundated with diseases, food shortages, poor medicine, wars, etc. Yet, these facts do not appear to affect the population growth rate.

pop-g-1.jpg
It seems the "good medicine" is doing the "grand" work!
 
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  • Aiahavezred

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    Glad you're back. I was on the old one as galenturul.

    Anyway, those charts aren't accounting for deaths. So, I fiddled in Google sheets for a bit but came to the same conclusion. I was pretty harsh with the numbers: birthrate of 1.5 and max age of 50 yrs. I even threw in a few wars and a plague.

    I came up with 4200 yrs for the first 1bn; starting from 4 couples.

    Where is everyone? My best guess is under all that sand in the Sahara or washed out by Randal Carlson's glacial floods.

    On the morbid side, it'd be pretty easy to turn a mass grave into a vein of coal.
     

    Aiahavezred

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    What populations numbers do your calculations suggest for today's date?
    Too many. But it was just a basic setup while the brain works more numbers in the background.

    Things I need to account for: Early population growth was probably 0.25/generation for a long time.

    I didn't set a death rate; just had everyone die at 50. I'm trying to run something more comprehensive.
     
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    When you come up with the number, please share. Wondering what your numbers we are talking about here.
     
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  • Aiahavezred

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    Got some time to play around with the spreadsheet today and found some interesting things.

    I set my generations to 15yrs and my death rate to 40% that was the rate in 1700s and any higher causes collapse.

    Now for some neat finds:
    • 1. The birth rate needs to be > 6 per couple per generation. If it falls to 5, it takes 2 generations to recover at a rate of 8/couple (max rate). At least up to a population of 4Mn or 1000yrs.
    • 2. If a pop of less than 48 couples splits off on their own they can't make kids fast enough for the group to thrive.
    • 3. If then main group splits early with more than 50 couples each, the total growth rate goes up by 25%.
    I gone any further than 1000yrs as I'm trying to tweak the model to be reasonable.

    A side thought on this. Bonobos live in groups of 120ish which would give 50 couples and 20 kids. Since we evolved from the same line, we probably stayed in stable groups of this size for a really really long time.
     
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    Would it matter if we substitute evolution with the science based deliberate human creation, and explain small initial numbers with individuals being survivors of some major world encompassing catastrophe?
     

    Banta

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    I'm pretty sure estimating world population at any time is pretty dubious, let alone speculating for lost long epochs. On the old site, I had linked to the CIA fact sheet on Somalia. When you get into the details, it reveals that the current numbers were a projection based on the last available census taken in the early 1970s! This is just one example in the difficulty of even assessing where we are, which I would think we would need to get a sense of where we've been.

    Generally speaking, it is amazingly ridiculous that it's credible to assume that the further away we get from a time period, the more we would know about it. Yet that's standard operating procedure. That being said, I find it interesting as the estimated population charts above are largely influenced by the dominant religious paradigm of the day. Presume men living to 1,000 on a freshly minted earth or a species with a 100,000+ year existence on a multi-billion year old earth, it's honestly the same thing in the end. Using math to illustrate and justify your religious belief.

    It seems logical to me that there are likely only two available options, if we accept that human beings are more or less biologically the same as they've always been: that we've had large portions of the population die off with regular and catastrophic frequency, or we simply haven't been around too long.

    On an unrelated note, I was pleasantly surprised to find this site operating when I randomly stopped by today. KD, nice to have you back and I apologize on behalf of the tire fire known as humanity. We just can't have nice things!
     

    Aiahavezred

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    Would it matter if we substitute evolution with the science based deliberate human creation, and explain small initial numbers with individuals being survivors of some major world encompassing
    I get you. No, it wouldn't. If we were made by aliens(smh), they would want to conserve resources. So making a stable, self sustaining population would be preferred for however long it was needed; too few and they need lab resources to make more. Too many and you have idle hands that have time to think for themselves. Evolution is pretty solid though. So I'm going to keep with that.

    As for catastrophes, I can add those in. As long as 50 breeding pairs survive a population will recover. As long as they just start cranking out babies.

    I will keep digging. But in the meantime, look up hans rolling on YouTube. Great bits on population growth.
     
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    That being said, I find it interesting as the estimated population charts above are largely influenced by the dominant religious paradigm of the day. Presume men living to 1,000 on a freshly minted earth or a species with a 100,000+ year existence on a multi-billion year old earth, it's honestly the same thing in the end.
    Well, can we be 100% positive that people did not live substantially longer at some point? There are some interesting life span images in the Tartary article.

    Methinks, life spans could be genetically programmed and re-programmed, based on the available levels of knowledge.

    If humans could be created from scratch by some seriously advanced beings, or simply programmed into the terrarum system if we take this far-fetched matrix possibility... changing human life spans could become a debatable issue.
     
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  • Banta

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    Well, can we be 100% positive that people did not live substantially longer at some point?
    Absolutely not. That's sort of my overall point though is that the only people who even hazard a guess at numbers like this are making very large presuppositions based on whatever agrees with their personal philosophy. I suspect the question that's trying to be answered is too large for mere mortals, like many other supposed "facts." To me, that's the most important takeaway, recognizing the cultural and personal biases that exist that are often so subtle that even the author is unaware and that this condition has not suddenly gone away as time has gone on. We've always been making up stories and thinking our stories are true. The myth of progress conceals this.
     
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    For myself, I keep on thinking about the African example. We suspect something happened there, and chances are, it happened less than 250 years ago. My 400 years wchosen to be on a safe side:
    Setting a possible divine repopulation of the area aside, we are left with survivors and newcomers.

    Basically, what I’m trying to say is that what we are seeing in Africa is probably as close as we can get to observing the natural procreation rates. Rates hindered by everything but the psychological and financial reasonings the so called first world countries appear to have.
     

    Aiahavezred

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    I had an epiphany today and added an infant mortality rate separate from the adult population. Things got super weird and really dynamic fluctuations appeared everywhere. I still haven't added wars or plagues. But, I ran the number from 12,500 yr ago (the last soon to be accepted wipeout) to present.

    Total number 113.5ish Bn.

    Thats seems like a reasoble amount. Next time I have a few minutes I will plot all the known plagues, wars, etc and see what we've got. Does anyone already have a list from anything BCE?
    Will need approximate year and total amount only.
     
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    I do not know where we could possibly get the info from 12,500 years ago.

    Personally, I would love to see various population numbers ideas starting with 1 AD. We can see what happened to our population between 1800 and 2021. May be working backwards, while using a similar average growth rate we could, at least look at one of the possibilities of when everything had started.
     
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  • Aiahavezred

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    Why would the aliens want to conserve resources?
    If you had an apple tree in your yard, that made apples all by itself, would you spend money on apples at the store?

    I do not know where we could possibly get the info from 12,500 years ago.

    Personally, I would love to see various population numbers ideas starting with 1 AD. We can see what happened to our population between 1800 and 2021. May be working backwards, while using a similar average growth rate we could, at least look at one of the possibilities of when everything had started.
    But everything didn't start at 1CE. We need a realistic base population first.

    That 113Bn was an error that I found this morning so the number is back to a ridiculous number; I'm shooting for something crazy like x00Bn before adding all known disasters an wars.

    Once I have this figured out I'm going to use it to check.
    Working backward from our pop. Now.
    "1000 yr gap" idea.
    Created by aliens idea
    Noah's ark legend. Etc.
    They all have different time frames so it should be interesting.
     
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    I'm really wondering what "year Zero" we would get going backwards. :)
     

    jd755

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    Depends on what the measurement of 'a year' is.
    The 365 day 12 month calendar is bogus in my eyes. It needs constant correcting to make it fit the artificial idea of every day being the same length. They ain't.

    In the 360 sun up calendar everything reduces to 9.

    360 days
    Ten 36 sun up months
    Four 90 sun up seasons
    Winter 27 November to 18 February
    Spring 9 February to 27 April
    Summer 27 April to 9 September
    Autumn 9 September t 27 November
    Two solstice to solstice periods of 180 sun up length
    Two solstice mid points aka equinoxes equidistant from each solstice at 90 sun up length

    The only variable in that calendar is the amount of daylight which rises from winter solstice to summer solstice and falls again in the exact same proportions from the summer solstice to the winter.

    I've followed this for a couple of years and the signs of nature and my moods show it to be the real deal.
     

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